A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
